Business & Economics

What can we learn from the FTX/Alameda Research Fiasco?

Posted on by TCA

There are lessons to be learned from the FTX/Alameda disaster.

First, to the extent you can, hold your own assets. The exchange was taking customer assets and lending them to the trading arm of the firm. Had customers held their own tokens, this wouldn’t have happened to the extent it did.

Second, value cannot be created out of thin air. Perhaps, these young kids were simply taking lessons from the Fed and the U.S. government (and the others around the world) who constantly print dollars thereby “creating value” out of thin air. As the holders of the FTT token found out, there is only value if someone wants to buy the thing you are selling. If all the sellers show up and there are no buyers, the value goes to zero pretty quickly. And “we all understand zero.“

Third, governance matters. A total lack of corporate governance was on display. As the former Enron liquidator found out. In most of these flameouts, you will find shoddy governance and controls.

Fourth, accountants play a crucial role for investors. Right now, there are too few people studying accounting the business schools. This is partially due to the extra hours students must obtain to enable them to take the CPA exam, and partially due to the rigor of the subject. Accounting is hard and the accountant schools often have the lowest GPAs on campus because of it.

Finally, don’t believe the bullshit when making investments. Approach every deal the same way and don’t ever fall in love with a deal. As the media has pointed out, there are some big names in the investing world that were scammed by SBF and his cronies. Had the basics been followed, these investors wouldn’t have been scammed, and the people who put money with these fund managers wouldn’t have gotten hurt. Perhaps, SBF’s ESG thoughts intrigued these investors given their push. Who knows, but I certainly hope the investors push back on these funds for failing to do proper diligence on a deal.

Something to Think About Over the Weekend

Posted on by TCA

Copied from LinkedIn and gives you something to think about over the weekend.

On the day I die a lot will happen.

A lot will change.

The world will be busy.

On the day I die, all the important appointments I made will be left unattended.

The many plans I had yet to complete will remain forever undone.

The calendar that ruled so many of my days will now be irrelevant to me.

All the material things I so chased and guarded and treasured will be left in the hands of others to care for or to discard.

The words of my critics which so burdened me will cease to sting or capture anymore. They will be unable to touch me.

The arguments I believed I’d won here will not serve me or bring me any satisfaction or solace.

All my noisy incoming notifications and texts and calls will go unanswered. Their great urgency will be quieted.

My many nagging regrets will all be resigned to the past, where they should have always been anyway.

Every superficial worry about my body that I ever labored over; about my waistline or hairline or frown lines, will fade away.

My carefully crafted image, the one I worked so hard to shape for others here, will be left to them to complete anyway.

The sterling reputation I once struggled so greatly to maintain will be of little concern for me anymore.

All the small and large anxieties that stole sleep from me each night will be rendered powerless.

The deep and towering mysteries about life and death that so consumed my mind will finally be clarified in a way that they could never be before while I lived.

These things will certainly all be true on the day that I die.

Yet for as much as will happen on that day, one more thing that will happen.

On the day I die, the few people who really know and truly love me will grieve deeply.

They will feel a void.

They will feel cheated.

They will not feel ready.

They will feel as though a part of them has died as well.

And on that day, more than anything in the world they will want more time with me.

I know this from those I love and grieve over.

And so knowing this, while I am still alive I’ll try to remember that my time with them is finite and fleeting and so very precious—and I’ll do my best not to waste a second of it.

I’ll try not to squander a priceless moment worrying about all the other things that will happen on the day I die, because many of those things are either not my concern or beyond my control.

Friends, those other things have an insidious way of keeping you from living even as you live; vying for your attention, competing for your affections.

They rob you of the joy of this unrepeatable, uncontainable, ever-evaporating Now with those who love you and want only to share it with you.

Don’t miss the chance to dance with them while you can.

It’s easy to waste so much daylight in the days before you die.

Don’t let your life be stolen every day, by all that you’ve been led to believe matters, because on the day you die—the fact is that much of it simply won’t.

Yes, you and I will die one day.

The FBI; It’s Time for It to Go

Posted on by TCA

The FBI has proven itself to be a political organization over the last eight to ten years. Its decent into a political organization supporting the democrats seemed to begin during the Obama administration. Since 2016, we have really seen what the organization has become.

You can begin with the Trump pee pee tape and all of the related Russian collusion stories. The misrepresentations/lies on FISA applications, the Mike Flynn prosecution, etc. are all part of the grand scheme to turn the FBI into an intelligence organization rather than a crime fighting one.

Several whistleblowers have come forward. The American Greatness has an article outlining one whistleblower who was interviewed by Dan Bongino on his podcast The Dan Bongino Show. https://amgreatness.com/2022/09/23/fbi-whistleblower-nobody-i-know-signed-up-to-investigate-parents-who-vented-at-schoolboard-meetings/.

With the LA Times reporting of the FBI’s confiscation of 1400 safety deposit boxes, and The Philadelphia Inquirer’s reporting of the recent arrest of a prominent Catholic activist on charges he assaulted a Planned Parenthood volunteer outside a Philadelphia clinic really sparked interest in what the FBI is doing and how they are doing it. Are they going to be allowed to continue misleading judges in granting warrants to search for a crime? Are they going to continue pursuing conservatives with whom they have political disagreements while allowing criminals to terrorize the citizens?

The battle lines are clear: vote for a Democrat and you vote for this to continue.

This entire agency needs to be disbanded with those at the top and those federal agents that were ”just doing their jobs” while knowingly violating the Constitutional rights of citizens, should be fired and not receive any pension benefits. Further, those whose rights were abused, should be able to seek reimbursement for their legal representation costs from both the government as well as the agents personally. I know of no other way to make them pay which is the only way this will stop. They must suffer real financial loss similar to what their tactics are causing the citizens to suffer.

Where is the economy?

Posted on by TCA

July’s inflation print was much better than anticipated. Markets and risk assets rallied. The only real negative this week has been the first time unemployment claims are up. What does all of this mean? Have we hit bottom and about to head up? Or, are we still heading into a recession?

To me, the key will be the inflation watch. If prices cool for consumers will the Fed cease rate increases thinking they won the inflation battle? If the Fed ceases increases, will the buyers come back into the real estate market or will the air in real estate continue coming out of the market?

So many questions and no real answers.

Is the Recession Here?

Posted on by TCA

ZeroHedge reported the following yesterday:

Bloomberg reported the AT&T’s CEO John Stankey said that customers are starting to put off paying their phone bills – which resulted in the wireless carrier cutting this year’s forecast for free cash flow by $2 billion.

With food, gas and utility inflation already hitting consumers’ pocketbooks, it is no wonder they are starting to see a slow down in cash flowing to “nice to haves” versus must haves. I realize there is a significant number of people who believe their cell phones are a must have and many have built businesses around them, but an overwhelming number really don’t need it especially the children.

If you think back to the June labor report, the job growth was from people taking second jobs, not from the addition of new jobs into the market. If memory serves me right, there was actually a reduction in the labor participation rate. This is not looking good.

The Coming Recession: Is it the Big One?

Posted on by TCA

While many conservatives like myself have been screaming about the federal government’s growth, spending and deficits, the outcome associated with these problems haven’t necessarily manifested themselves in a significant way. Well, that might all be changing.

As we look forward, we see inflation hitting heights not seen since the 1970s/1980s, and we see some of the world pushing back on the US Dollar hegemony. As the demand for dollars around the world slow with no contraction of the supply of dollars, you can expect the USD’s value to decline. This makes everything more expensive given we no longer manufacture things in the U.S. With the prices of goods costing more and more, you would expect demand to go down. When the demand for your currency goes down, the value of your currency goes down. Reduced demand for goods will lead to layoffs (i.e. higher unemployment). All of this means stagflation.

All of this pricing pressure will likely push the Fed to increase rates in order to stimulate demand for USD and stabilize prices. However, this will mean less and less is available for the bailouts and benefits that governments spread during such times which means a more disgruntled population and possibility of civil unrest.

Once this starts, I think it will unfold pretty quickly. The government required shutdowns due to COVID have us in a very precarious position. Will it all come crashing down? Don’t know. However, you need to prepare for some hard times ahead if I’m reading the tea leaves correctly.

The Coming Resurgence of Self-Reliance

Posted on by TCA

With the world going to hell as the U.S. and Russia fight their proxy war in Ukraine, one thing is becoming more and more apparent: governments have been selling their citizens down the river for personal gain for decades. We have learned that Ukraine has been a pool of corruption from which the elites have drawn from to enrich themselves while selling the rest of us down the river. Democrats and Republicans both receive money from these corrupt countries so the foreigners can access the trillions spent by the U.S. government.

One thing has happened though: they are no longer hiding their desires and intentions. They have amassed enough wealth to ride out the inflationary cycle while throwing pittance at their citizens so they can get by. More and more you can see them at conferences and on hot mikes taking about the coming reset in which they will control everything we do.

We may be witness the awakening of the citizenry that those in government only look after themselves. upon their awakening, you can expect major changes in how people vote and use their money. As the great awakening happens, you will see the takers from both parties in the U.S. attempt to regain control and assert once again they are for the little guy all the while continuing the destructive policies that have hurt the little guy.

With the understanding and realization that ”Santa Claus”, aka the government, doesn’t have their best interest at heart, they will discover the old U.S. value that underpins the constitutional framework: self-reliance. With that great discovery, they will be freed from today’s slave owners and simultaneously destroy the chains of today, i.e. government programs.