November 17, 2025

Posted on by TCA

Morning Briefing
Published ~5:30 a.m. ET
#Markets #Economy #Policy

Global markets start the new week trying to stabilize after last week’s tech-led sell-off, renewed doubts about a December Fed cut, and lingering concern over China’s slowdown. The end of the record U.S. government shutdown removes one key overhang, but policy and growth questions remain.

1) Global markets snapshot (overnight Asia / Europe)

Asian trading was mostly weaker. Japan held up relatively better on exporter support, but most major Asian indices slipped following Wall Street’s Friday stumble and ongoing anxiety about Chinese growth and investment. AccessWdun+1

European trade is mixed in early dealing, with benchmarks slightly softer after last week’s declines in banks and tech, but some stabilization in value and dividend names. Morningstar+1 Risk appetite remains fragile: the big picture is rotation away from the most richly valued growth names toward quality value and defensives.

2) U.S. pre-market / early indicators

U.S. stock futures are higher as investors position for a heavy week of AI, retail, and macro headlines. Nasdaq 100 futures are up roughly 1%, S&P 500 about 0.6%, and Dow futures modestly green, with tech again leading pre-market after last week’s reset. Yahoo Finance+3TipRanks+3Meyka+3

Key themes into the open:

  • Earnings: Nvidia and other AI bellwethers headline a busy calendar that will test whether investors still want to pay up for AI capex stories after a valuation scare. Morningstar+1
  • Macro: Delayed U.S. data begin to trickle back now that the 43-day federal shutdown has ended and agencies are reopening, restoring the flow of official economic releases over coming days. CBS News+1
  • Positioning: Flows late last week showed rotation out of mega-cap high flyers into value and cyclicals; today’s tape will show whether that continues or mean-reverts. Reuters+1

3) Cryptocurrency market briefing & outlook

Crypto is deep in correction mode. Bitcoin slid below $93,200 overnight at one point—briefly wiping out its 2025 gains—before bouncing back toward the mid-$90K area. TradingView+2Twelve Data+2 From its early-October peak, BTC is down roughly 25%, meeting a technical bear-market threshold. IG

The broader backdrop:

  • Traders are repricing Fed cut odds—December is now a coin toss, not a done deal—tightening financial conditions and hurting high-beta assets like crypto. Reuters+3Reuters+3Morningstar+3
  • Ethereum has broken key technical support around $3,100 in a wider crypto sell-off tied to policy risk and sentiment exhaustion. Bitget
  • Fear & Greed gauges in digital assets have swung to “extreme fear,” suggesting capitulation is well underway but not necessarily complete. AMBCrypto+1

Outlook: If yields and the dollar ease and risk sentiment stabilizes, BTC could base in the $90K–$100K range; another push higher in yields or more hawkish Fed rhetoric risks a deeper leg lower.

4) Key policy / government / regulatory developments

  • Shutdown over: Congress passed, and the White House signed, a funding bill late last week, ending the record 43-day government shutdown. Agencies are reopening and working through delayed data and back pay. CBS News+2The Wall Street Journal+2
  • Fed debate: Hawks seized the microphone last week, warning that inflation progress could stall and pushing back against another near-term cut. Market-implied odds of a December cut have fallen to around 50%, down sharply from near-certainty a month ago. Yahoo Finance+4Reuters+4Morningstar+4
  • Economist consensus: Despite hawkish talk, a Reuters poll still finds about 80% of economists expect a 25 bp cut in December to cushion a weakening labor market—highlighting the split between markets, Fed rhetoric, and forecasters. Reuters

5) What to watch today

  • Nvidia & AI complex: Pre-positioning and any guidance leaks ahead of earnings.
  • First post-shutdown data: Timing and content of rescheduled reports; markets will scrutinize every line. The Wall Street Journal
  • Fed speakers: Any attempt to clarify the December path after last week’s hawkish barrage. Reuters+1
  • China headlines: Follow-through on weak investment data and any incremental support signals. The Guardian+1
  • Crypto price action: Whether BTC can hold above the low-$90Ks or sees another flush. TradingView+1

Bullet-point takeaways

We’ll track the U.S. open, policy commentary, and cross-asset flows for the evening recap.

TCA

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