Tech-led risk rally kicks off Thanksgiving week
Morning Briefing ~6:00 a.m. ET
#Markets #Economy #Policy
Global markets snapshot – Asia & Europe
Global equities are starting the week on a firmer footing as investors lean into rising odds of a December Fed rate cut.
- Asia-Pacific: Regional markets were mixed but tilted higher. MSCI Asia ex-Japan rose about 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped nearly 2% on a rebound in tech and China internet names, while Shanghai and Shenzhen posted modest gains. Japan’s markets were closed for the Labor Thanksgiving Day holiday, and India and Korea traded softer, leaving the region uneven beneath the headline gains. TipRanks+1
- Europe: The STOXX Europe 600 was up around 0.5% in early trade as bourses played catch-up with Friday’s U.S. rebound. Banks, drugs and tech led, while defense names lagged amid reports of ongoing U.S.–Ukraine talks on a potential peace plan, which also weighed on oil. Reuters
A weaker dollar and stabilising bond yields are providing a tailwind, even as the Japanese yen hovers near a 10-month low and traders stay alert for potential FX intervention from Tokyo. Reuters
U.S. pre-market – futures, earnings and macro tone
U.S. stock futures point to a positive open after Friday’s broad-based bounce:
- Futures: As of early morning, Nasdaq 100 futures are up roughly 0.5–1%, S&P 500 about 0.3%, and Dow around 0.3–0.4%, continuing last week’s late-session recovery. TipRanks+1
- Rates: The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.05%, with the 2-year around 3.5%. Fed funds futures imply roughly a 60–75% probability of another 25 bp cut at the December meeting after New York Fed President John Williams signaled “room for a further adjustment in the near term.” Reuters+1
Corporate focus:
Premarket attention is on megacap tech and AI:
- Alphabet is bid higher after overtaking Microsoft in market value last week following new AI product launches.
- Autonomous-driving plays Pony.ai and WeRide are active on partnership news and strong revenue growth.
- Tonight’s earnings: Zoom Video and Keysight report after the bell, giving fresh read-throughs on enterprise IT demand and test/measurement capex. Benzinga
There is no major U.S. economic data on today’s calendar, but a heavy slate of delayed releases (retail sales, PPI, housing and confidence data) hits starting Tuesday and could quickly reshape the rate narrative. Benzinga
Crypto briefing – fragile bounce after a bruising month
Digital assets are trying to stabilise after a sharp November drawdown:
- Total crypto market cap is back near $3.0T, up just under 1% over the past day.
- Bitcoin trades in the mid-$86K–$87K range, rebounding from last week’s slide toward $80K; Ether hovers around $2.8K. 99Bitcoins+2ForkLog+2
- Sentiment remains cautious: the Fear & Greed Index sits in “extreme fear,” and U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen several weeks of net outflows. ForkLog+1
Singapore Exchange’s launch of regulated BTC and ETH perpetual futures today underscores Asia’s growing role in institutional crypto infrastructure, even as thinning liquidity and ETF redemptions keep volatility elevated. Business Today
Outlook: Key levels to watch are ~$85K–90K for BTC and $2.6K–2.8K for ETH. Holding those bands would support a consolidation narrative; a break lower would reignite talk of a deeper cyclical correction. Business Today+1
Policy, government & central banks – backdrop for the tape
The macro-policy backdrop is still doing most of the work for risk assets:
- The Fed has already cut rates twice (September and October) and is debating a third move in December while operating with patchy data after a record U.S. government shutdown forced the cancellation of the October CPI release. SEI+1
- The ECB, BoE and BoJ are all on hold, while the Bank of Canada has cut four times this year amid near-recession conditions – a mixed global policy picture that keeps rate-sensitive growth names in focus. SEI
- U.K. Chancellor Rachel Reeves will present her first budget on Wednesday, with investors watching for tax and spending choices that could move gilts, sterling and domestically focused U.K. equities. Reuters
What to watch today
- Follow-through in U.S. equities: Does the AI- and tech-led futures strength carry into cash trading, and do small caps participate?
- Zoom & Keysight earnings (after close): Guidance on enterprise budgets, AI workloads and industrial demand. Benzinga
- FX stress points: USD/JPY moves and any verbal or actual intervention from Japanese authorities as the yen tests multi-month lows. Reuters+1
- Crypto liquidity and ETF flows: Whether the weekend bounce in BTC/ETH attracts fresh spot and derivatives activity or fades quickly. ForkLog+1
- Headline risk: Any leaks around the coming U.K. budget or U.S.–Ukraine talks that could sway defense and energy names. Reuters
Key takeaways
- Global stocks are firmer as Asia and Europe ride Fed-cut optimism into a data-heavy week. Reuters+1
- U.S. futures point higher, with tech and AI once again leading pre-market and a December Fed cut now the market’s base case. Benzinga+1
- Crypto is trying to build a floor in the mid-$80Ks for BTC, but extreme fear and ETF outflows keep the setup fragile. ForkLog+1
- Policy remains the main driver: a divided but easing Fed, cautious Europe and Japan, and an unusually long U.S. data fog after the shutdown. SEI+1
