Evening Briefing
Published 4:45 p.m. ET
#Markets #Economy #Policy
1. U.S. Markets: Tech Leads a Tentative Rebound
U.S. equities snapped a four-day losing streak in choppy trade as investors rotated back into large-cap tech ahead of Nvidia’s earnings after the bell. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all closed modestly higher, with growth and AI-linked names leading gains while defensives lagged. MarketWatch+1
The tone shifted mid-afternoon after the Federal Reserve released minutes from its October 28–29 FOMC meeting. The minutes showed a divided committee: some officials argued that slowing growth and easing inflation justify further rate cuts, while others warned against moving too quickly given resilient demand. Federal Reserve Futures now price a lower probability of another cut at the December meeting, but odds remain volatile as fresh data trickles in.
On the macro front, investors digested a dense slate of releases: U.S. housing starts, building permits, international trade in goods and services, and the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index all hit this morning. Taken together, the data sketched a “soft-landing-ish” picture—housing stabilizing but not roaring, trade still soft, and financial conditions only slightly tighter. FRED The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model nudged its Q3 real GDP growth estimate up to 4.2% from 4.1%, reinforcing the view that underlying activity remains solid despite rate uncertainty. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Overseas, Asia started the global trading day on a cautious note. Asian shares slipped overall as investors trimmed AI-related exposure ahead of Nvidia’s results, though benchmarks in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Shanghai managed modest gains by late morning. WRAL News India outperformed, with the Sensex closing more than 500 points higher and the Nifty 50 reclaiming the 26,000 mark on strength in large-cap IT names. The Economic Times
2. Crypto: Deep Selloff, Deleveraging and an Asian Session Test
Crypto markets extended November’s sharp correction. Bitcoin traded around the low-$90,000s for much of the U.S. day before slipping closer to $90,000 into the close, leaving it down nearly 30% from its early-Q3 peak and erasing more than $1 trillion in market value across digital assets this month. The Economic Times+1 Ethereum underperformed, breaking below the psychologically important $3,000 level and trading in the high-$2,800s to low-$2,900s after a wave of liquidations and ETF outflows. The Economic Times+1 Solana slid to the low-$130s, its weakest level in roughly five months, even as ETF filings for SOL continue to pile up in the U.S. blockchainreporter+1
Derivatives markets show signs of a forced cleanup. Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest has dropped 20–30% since early October, while funding rates collapsed, signaling aggressive deleveraging rather than purely spot selling. ETF & Mutual Fund Manager | VanEck For ETH, leverage has actually spiked as price stalled, a setup some analysts see as a risk for further downside if support fails. CryptoPotato
Sentiment is firmly in “extreme fear,” but a growing chorus of strategists argues that retail capitulation and washed-out positioning could set the stage for a technical rebound if macro conditions don’t deteriorate further. CoinDesk+1
Asia outlook (crypto): With U.S. traders heading home on a weak tape and leverage still elevated in pockets of the market, the overnight Asia session will likely test whether $84,000–$86,000 in Bitcoin and ~$2,800 in ETH can hold as near-term support zones. The Economic Times+1
3. Policy & Regulation: Fed Signals and SEC Priorities
Policy headlines stayed front-and-center for markets:
- FOMC minutes: Today’s minutes confirmed that the Fed now sees rates “somewhat restrictive,” but remains data-dependent. The debate over how quickly to normalize policy—and how to interpret still-resilient growth—kept rate-sensitive sectors choppy into the close. Federal Reserve+1
- Miran speech on regulation & the balance sheet: Fed Governor Stephen Miran argued that easing parts of the post-crisis regulatory framework could allow the Fed to run with a smaller balance sheet over time, a subtle but important signal for banks and liquidity-sensitive corners of the market. Federal Reserve+1
- Data disruptions: The Bureau of Labor Statistics formally canceled the October jobs report and delayed the release of subsequent employment data as it rebuilds operations after the record government shutdown—one reason traders have nearly priced out a December rate cut. Yahoo Finance+1
- SEC exam priorities: The SEC’s Division of Examinations published its 2026 exam priorities, flagging continued scrutiny of investment advisers, retail-facing products, cybersecurity and digital assets. That document will help shape compliance focus—and legal risk—for brokers, RIAs and crypto-adjacent platforms into next year. Sidley Austin
4. What to Watch (Next 24–48 Hours)
- Nvidia earnings (after today’s close): Street expectations are high for another blockbuster AI quarter; guidance on data-center demand and capex will be critical for broader tech sentiment. The Wall Street Journal+1
- Delayed U.S. employment and labor data: With October’s report scrapped, markets will parse the next cluster of jobs releases especially closely for confirmation of any labor-market cooling once the new calendar is finalized. Kiplinger+1
- Thursday U.S. data: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, Conference Board leading indicators and October existing-home sales will offer fresh read-through on growth and housing. Scotiabank
- Japan CPI and Asia macro: Japan’s October CPI and related releases could move the yen and regional risk sentiment during the Asian session. Scotiabank+1
- Ongoing Fed speak: Any follow-up remarks from Fed officials after today’s minutes—especially around balance sheet strategy and regulation—could shift rate-cut odds again. Federal Reserve+1
