Morning Briefing
– 6:00 a.m. ET
#Markets #Economy #Policy
1. Global Markets Snapshot – Nvidia Relief Rally, Jobs Test Ahead
A relief rally is sweeping global equities after Nvidia’s blowout results eased near-term AI bubble fears.
- Asia: Tech led strong gains. Japan’s Nikkei finished up about 2.6%, Korea’s KOSPI gained nearly 2%, and Taiwan jumped over 3% as TSMC rallied more than 4%. Reuters Hong Kong lagged as China growth and property worries kept investors cautious. Investing.com+1
- Europe (early session): The STOXX 600 trades up roughly 0.7%, with Germany and France up about 0.8% each. Tech, banks, and defense stocks lead as Nvidia’s numbers reset sentiment after last week’s selloff. Reuters
- FX & rates: The dollar holds near a 6-month high and the yen stays under pressure as Japan’s fiscal outlook worries markets. Reuters Global attention is shifting from AI earnings back to today’s long-delayed U.S. jobs report. Bureau of Labor Statistics+1
2. U.S. Pre-Market – Nvidia Lifts Futures, All Eyes on Data
U.S. futures are sharply higher as traders price in stronger tech earnings against a still-murky macro picture.
- Index futures: As of early morning, Nasdaq 100 futures are up around 1.7%, S&P 500 futures roughly 1.3%, and Dow futures about 0.6%, with Nvidia up more than 5% pre-market. TipRanks+1
- Nvidia: The chip giant topped Q3 expectations and guided Q4 revenue well above forecasts on “off the charts” demand for its Blackwell AI chips, easing funding and bubble concerns across the sector. TipRanks+1
- Key data today (all ET):
- 8:30 a.m.: September Employment Situation – the long-delayed jobs report finally prints after the 43-day government shutdown; October’s report has been canceled and November’s will be released December 16. Bureau of Labor Statistics+1
- 8:30 a.m.: Initial jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (Nov). S&P Global+1
- 10:00 a.m.: October existing home sales from NAR. National Association of REALTORS®+1
- Earnings on deck: Pre-market reports feature Walmart, NetEase, VIPS, Maximus, Warner Music Group, Atkore, and others that will give another read on the U.S. consumer, China demand, and government services spending. Nasdaq
3. Crypto – Volatile Shakeout, Then a Risk-On Rebound
Crypto is stabilizing after a violent shakeout that briefly pushed Bitcoin below $90,000 before a fast reversal tied to Nvidia’s earnings and a broader risk-on tone. XT+1
- Levels: Bitcoin trades back above $92,000, while Ethereum hovers near $3,000 after a choppy 24 hours. Cryptonews+1
- Market structure: Derivatives data show large liquidations and a meaningful drop in BTC open interest, suggesting leverage has been flushed out. At the same time, Layer-2 tokens, AI-linked coins, and select NFTs are posting modest gains even as DeFi and GameFi indices remain under pressure. Cryptonews+1
- Flows & positioning: Ark Invest just added nearly $40 million to crypto-exposed equities (Bullish, Circle, Bitmine) after this week’s drawdown, reinforcing the “buy the dip in infrastructure” theme. CoinDesk
- Outlook: If Nvidia-driven risk appetite holds and today’s jobs data don’t trigger a renewed spike in rate-cut odds, crypto could ride the equity relief rally. A weaker-than-expected labor print, however, may revive macro anxiety and keep volatility elevated into the U.S. close. Medium+1
4. Policy & Regulation – Jobs Data, Fed Signals, and Tariffs
Policy risk remains a key driver of asset prices today:
- BLS data shock: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September’s delayed employment report this morning while confirming that no October jobs report will be published. November’s report arrives after the Fed’s December meeting, leaving policymakers with an unusually sparse labor picture. Reuters+2MarketWatch+2
- Fed tone: Governor Christopher Waller said earlier this week that a weakening labor market would justify a December rate cut, highlighting divisions inside the Fed. Reuters Governor Stephen Miran is separately pushing to exempt Treasuries from key bank leverage rules and roll back some post-crisis regulation, arguing this would support market liquidity and allow a smaller Fed balance sheet. Reuters+1
- Fed Board meeting: The Fed holds a closed Board meeting at 1:15 p.m. ET today to discuss matters under its jurisdiction, a regular but closely watched event given the current policy uncertainty. Federal Reserve
- Trade/tech policy: Reports that Washington may delay a planned 100% tariff on semiconductor imports to ease tensions with China are giving chipmakers an extra boost in Europe and Asia. Reuters+1
5. What to Watch Today
- 8:30 a.m. ET – September jobs report and jobless claims: first clean read on hiring since the shutdown; key for December Fed-cut odds. Bureau of Labor Statistics+1
- 8:30 a.m. ET – Philly Fed manufacturing (Nov): signal on industrial momentum and sentiment in a data-distorted quarter. S&P Global+1
- 10:00 a.m. ET – Existing home sales (Oct): update on housing turnover as higher mortgage costs and confidence shocks bite. National Association of REALTORS®
- Post-earnings reaction in Nvidia and global semis: whether the AI relief rally extends or fades by the U.S. close. Reuters+1
- Fed speakers and the 1:15 p.m. closed Board meeting: any fresh hints on regulation, balance sheet strategy, or the December rate decision. Federal Reserve+2Federal Reserve+2
Key Takeaways
- Nvidia’s results have triggered a global risk-on rebound, with Asia and Europe firmly higher into the U.S. open. Reuters+1
- U.S. futures point to a tech-led gap up, but the tone hinges on the delayed September jobs report and claims data at 8:30 a.m. ET. TipRanks+1
- Crypto has stabilized above key levels after a sharp shakeout, with selective strength in L2s, AI tokens, and crypto-equity plays. Cryptonews+1
- Policy risk is elevated: the missing October jobs report, Fed division over rate cuts, and regulatory debates on Treasuries and bank leverage all complicate the outlook. MarketWatch+2Reuters+2
- Traders should expect heightened intraday volatility as markets digest both hard data and Fed signals ahead of the December meeting. Medium
